Nov 10th - A South African dream, deferred

Tuesday, November 10, 2009 7:35 PM

Geoffrey York

A year ago, I was at the formative meeting of a nascent political party that seemed to be triggering an earthquake in South African politics. The mood at the convention in suburban Johannesburg was boisterous, joyful, almost ecstatic. The delegates of the new party were dancing in the aisles and singing the songs of liberation as they listened to the speeches.

The party became known as COPE (the Congress of the People). Created by dissidents from the ruling African National Congress, it seemed to offer the first real chance of robust democratic competition in South Africa since the collapse of apartheid in 1994.

The ANC was adored as the party of Nelson Mandela, the party that liberated South Africa from white minority rule. But after 14 years in power it was accused of arrogance and corruption. With the creation of the new breakaway party, the long monopoly of the ANC was finally facing a real challenge.

As the new party marks its first anniversary, however, its political dream is rapidly fading, destroyed by disorganization and bitter infighting among its egotistical leaders. For those who hoped to see the ANC forced to compete for votes, COPE's decline is a depressing reminder that Africa's ruling parties can be extremely difficult to dislodge.

The decline began in early 2009 with squabbles between the party's two main founders, former ANC provincial premier Mbhazima Shilowa and former ANC cabinet minister Mosiuoa Lekota. Unable to agree on a presidential candidate for the national election in April, the party ended up choosing a compromise figure, a little-known Methodist priest, as its candidate for president.

The party was aiming for at least 15 to 20 per cent of the vote in the national election – enough to establish a strong base for future growth. Instead it wound up with 7 per cent, finishing third in the election, instead of the assumed second.

Since then, the feuding and squabbling has grown disastrously worse. Many of its top leaders have quit the party. One of its most famous members, the anti-apartheid activist Allan Boesak, resigned from COPE this month. He complained of “disarray” in the party, and accused the party of suppressing any critical voices. Another senior COPE leader, Lynda Odendaal, had quit the party earlier, complaining of internal power struggles. Several other top officials have also resigned.

A year ago, political analyst Aubrey Matshiqi told me that the new party could seriously weaken the ANC if it could capture 15 to 20 per cent of the vote. Now he is asking what went wrong. “COPE looks more like the Titanic – with an iceberg waiting ahead – than a credible alternative to the ANC,” he wrote in a recent column.

Certainly COPE seems mortally wounded. But it would be wrong to dismiss its formation as a meaningless event. Despite gaining only 7 per cent of the vote, it played a key role in preventing the ANC from retaining the two-thirds majority that it had previously enjoyed – an important victory for the opposition, since a two-thirds margin would allow the ANC to change the constitution unilaterally.

Just as important, COPE has shown that an opposition party can gain votes from blacks across the country. Until this year, South Africa's opposition parties were largely based on ethnic strongholds , whites or mixed-race voters. The rise of COPE has shown that many middle-class blacks across the country are growing discontented with the ruling party.

While it might ultimately be destroyed by its internal feuds, COPE has paved the way for future challenges to the ANC, keeping democracy alive in Africa's richest country.

Source : http://www.theglobeandmail.com/blogs/africa-chronicle/a-south-african-dream-deferred/article1358581/