Oct 1st 2009 | JOHANNESBURG
From The Economist print edition
President Jacob Zuma talks tough. But can he make a difference?
FIVE years ago, Thabo Mbeki, then South Africa’s president, branded those who claimed that violent crime in the country was out of control as “white racists” who depicted black people as “barbaric savages” who liked to rape and kill. His successor, Jacob Zuma, takes a different view. This week he called for “extraordinary measures” to deal with crime, especially the violent type. Among other things, he wants to give police a stronger right to kill. At present, they can shoot only if their life or that of others is in danger, after firing a warning shot. This, vows Mr Zuma, will change. “Police have no time to give warning shots…If they do, we will be burying a lot of police officers.”
Human-rights people question whether giving the police greater powers is the right response. More than 100 policemen were killed on duty last year. But they shot dead about 600 suspects and innocent bystanders. Mr Zuma says he does not want to create a “trigger-happy” force. But some think that police trigger-fingers are already itchy enough. There is also talk of removing or at least limiting a suspect’s right to remain silent on arrest.
Still, with the football World Cup in South Africa next year, Mr Zuma is determined to crack down. His is one of the world’s most criminally violent countries. Every day, around 50 murders, 100 rapes, 700 burglaries and 500-plus violent assaults are officially recorded in a population of 50m. Although the murder figures may be fairly accurate, only around one in ten rapes are thought to be reported to the police. In a recent survey by the Medical Research Council in two provinces, more than one in four men aged 18-49 admitted to having committed at least one rape.
What shocks people is not just the high level of crime but the wanton violence that usually accompanies it; gangs often kill people just for their mobile phones. It is not only whites (9% of the population) who complain. Almost everyone is afraid. In one poll 62% of South Africans said they would feel “very unsafe” walking alone in their district after dark. The rich lavish money on protection. The poor black majority have to live with fear.
More fortress-like gated communities are being built, guarded around the clock by armed men. Most of the white and black middle class barricade themselves behind increasing layers of security: bright lights; high perimeter-walls topped with electric fencing or razor wire; guard dogs; panic buttons and an alarm system linked to one of the many armed rapid-response security firms that promise to arrive within three minutes of a call. Since 1996 the government has quadrupled its anti-crime spending. But private spending has risen far more, by a factor of 400. Private security in South Africa is now worth 14 billion rand ($1.9 billion) a year, with 300,000 registered guards.
In fact, despite public grumbles, the government has had some success. If new police statistics are to be believed, the crime rate for the 21 most serious categories has fallen by nearly a fifth in the past 15 years. The murder rate has fallen by almost half, rape is down by a third, and assault causing grievous bodily harm has dipped by more than a fifth. Yet South Africa still has one of the world’s highest murder rates, at 37 per 100,000 inhabitants: six times America’s rate and nearly 20 times Britain’s. Though some types of crime have gone down, the rate of violent house robbery has doubled in the past five years. Armed robbery at business premises has risen fourfold in the same period.
The reason for South Africa’s high crime rate is a topic of anguished debate. Apartheid’s brutal legacy, high unemployment and poverty, gaping social inequality, the absence of a father in nearly two-thirds of black homes, and the abuse of alcohol and drugs are all cited. Education is crucial: recent research shows that those who earn the basic school-leaving certificate are six times less likely to commit a crime than those who do not. Criminal syndicates, often run by foreigners, are rife.
Despite his recent tough talk, Mr Zuma knows there is no easy answer. He promises to boost the police from 183,000 to 205,000 in three years. He needs to improve their quality too. Most are badly trained and ill-paid; many are corrupt. Some people want to lock up miscreants for longer, but South Africa, with 335 out of every 100,000 inhabitants behind bars, already has one of the world’s highest incarceration rates, especially since tougher minimum sentences were imposed a decade ago. A DNA data bank containing samples of anyone ever arrested has been suggested. Perhaps most urgent of all is a need to improve detection rates. Of the 2m-odd crimes reported every year, barely half ever result in a charge and only 10-15% end up with a conviction.
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